The Super Bowl is on Monday

Well well. I have meant to throw in some election predictions. Earlier this week, I commented this: 10 Liberals, 5 Cons, the rest of it, Bloc.

Now, I do not have my electoral map in front of me (for some reason, the Javascript is screwy on my machine...). I am guessing that the Libs are going to make huge losses, but will conserve most of its English-speaking Montreal ridings, including the one I'm living in, Lac-Saint-Louis. A few elections ago, when Brian Mulroney was PM, we were part of Vaudreuil-Soulanges, with a Conservative MP I believe (who was even a cabinet minister). This riding went to the Liberals, after 1993, and was a surprise loss in 2004, to the Bloc. Would it fall back to the Conservatives? I have not heard of the regional polls, and it's a race to follow, with former astronaut Marc Garneau as the running Liberal (and who campaigned with politically weird declarations à l'emporte-pièce).

Liza Frulla's Jeanne-Le-Ber could be a Liberal loss, in the popular district of Pointe-Saint-Charles. Idem for a bunch of ministers, like Pierre Pettigrew's Papineau. Stéphane Dion's Saint-Laurent-Cartierville is safe, so is Lucienne Robillard's Westmount. (It seems that every downtown Montreal riding is either a minister or PM) Some far-fetched reports are saying that Paul Martin could lose Lasalle-Ville-Émard, but if it were to happen, that would be, plainly said, vraiment poche.

It would be a night full of surprises, and that is enough thrills for an end-of-January political faceoff. Love the blood.

A Conservative minority, short of a few from majority. Landslide Annie, hold on tight! Anything like the 1993 debacle would be a surprise, perhaps not a pleasant one.


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This page contains a single entry by Cedric published on January 21, 2006 1:05 AM.

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